« Legal Postings | Main | Radical Islam, Identity, and Iraq: Fukuyama Flinches »
January 16, 2007
The Case for Partition
As the long-awaited (four years too late) congressional debate over Iraq looms, it is disheartening to think just how off the mark it’s likely to be. The most important issues surrounding the catastrophic failure of Bush’s war policy may not be ignored, exactly, but they won’t be productively discussed. They can’t be.
Here’s the problem: The debate is going to pivot on the question of whether or not to continue the war, whether to stay or find some formula for leaving. That is, the issue will not be the problem of Iraq and how best to resolve it; rather, it will be narrowly focused on continuing one policy fix—war—as the only game in town.
Framed this way, the President has himself a slam-dunk argument (pubic opinion notwithstanding). All he needs to do is argue the necessity of success, not the efficacy of his means to achieve it. Hence, his “surge” speech:
The consequences of failure are clear: Radical Islamic extremists would grow in strength and gain new recruits. They would be in a better position to topple moderate governments, create chaos in the region and use oil revenues to fund their ambitions. Iran would be emboldened in its pursuit of nuclear weapons. Our enemies would have a safe haven from which to plan and launch attacks on the American people.
Robert Kagan draws a more dramatic picture and links it to military strategy:
We should not kid ourselves about the cost of failing to create a relatively secure situation in Iraq. The sectarian violence we are seeing today will seem minor compared with the massive bloodshed of a genuine Iraqi civil war. The idea of a "phased redeployment" implies a smooth, gradual process whereby U.S. military forces withdraw and Iraqis peacefully adjust. It's almost impossible to imagine events unfolding that way. Once we begin the process of U.S. withdrawal, there will be an eruption of violence to fill the vacuum. International terrorist groups will find themselves unchallenged in parts of Iraq and able to establish new bases from which to launch attacks against the United States and its allies. It is fanciful to imagine that the Iraqis themselves will take action against these groups: They will have their hands full fighting one another.
The problem with these predictions is that they’re right—or at least sufficiently probable to make them intellectually impossible to dismiss. Iraq is a mess, and even a phased American withdrawal (all things being equal) will likely leave it in more of a mess than it is now. Of course, acknowledging such probabilities does not mean that the war should be continued or escalated. It’s quite easy to make the case that the war only exacerbates these same problems. But no matter. So long as “the consequences of failure” are accepted as bush’s best argument, opponents of the war are left in an absurd and dangerous rhetorical position: They must apparently choose between denial or indifference—must say either “that’s an exaggeration, it won’t really happen” or, “so what? it doesn’t really matter (a little Islamic terrorism never hurt nobody).”
Faced with this choice—plus the Administration fantasy that the war can still be won—war critics have by and large been content to focus on the war’s delusional rationale and its failure to achieve whatever objectives the President happens to be offering for it at the time. But the only one talking loudly about long term interests is Bush—and what he’s saying is dangerous and just plain stupid.
In a truly meaningful debate, the “consequences” of the Iraq fiasco and how best to manage them would be the issue. The question needs to be how, if possible, to extract ourselves from the war without doing more damage than we have already, and maybe even undoing some of it. That is, since our presence there has: 1. turned Iraq into an incubator for terrorism, and 2. staged the ideal conditions for region-wide sectarian warfare, it would be nice if we could leave the country in a manner that would retard somewhat the development of those two political cancers.
The best hope, I believe, is partition—or radical federalization. Senator Joseph Biden has articulated this idea several times, but not to generally receptive ears. But it’s the only idea I am aware of that offers any hope of leaving Iraq in some crude form of stability. Biden’s approach has appeared several times in print, but he put it sharply in a Washington Post Op-Ed piece on August 24th of last year (2006):
First, the plan calls for maintaining a unified Iraq by decentralizing it and giving Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis their own regions. The central government would be left in charge of common interests, such as border security and the distribution of oil revenue. Second, it would bind the Sunnis to the deal by guaranteeing them a proportionate share of oil revenue. Each group would have an incentive to maximize oil production, making oil the glue that binds the country together. Third, the plan would create a massive jobs program while increasing reconstruction aid -- especially from the oil-rich Gulf states -- but tying it to the protection of minority rights. Fourth, it would convene an international conference that would produce a regional nonaggression pact and create a Contact Group to enforce regional commitments. Fifth, it would begin the phased redeployment of U.S. forces this year and withdraw most of them by the end of 2007, while maintaining a small follow-on force to keep the neighbors honest and to strike any concentration of terrorists.
It’s not clear that, at this late date, there’s anything we can do. But by attempting to “incentivize” disengagement (as Rummy might have put it), the Biden plan holds out at least the hope of arresting sectarian violence before it spills over the borders. By extension, it might help eliminate the local militia’s role as employer of first resort and sponsor of the neighborhood academy of terror.
Posted by stevemack at January 16, 2007 08:15 PM
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